Fast Trains and Super Highways

"Nothing endures but change." - Heraclitus 

We began our UTA Trends & Issues in Real Estate class with a look back at the changes that have impacted real estate in the last 50-60 years.  From technology to transportation, changes within our culture have impacted the type, form, and location of development.  By looking for trends in the current market we may be able to predict some of the issues that will impact future real estate markets and options.

The 1950's saw dramatic growth in the American auto industry and a cultural change that resulted in a move away from urban living and mass transit to life in the suburbs.  Along with this growing mobility came the need for roads and the expansion of interstate highways.  These two developments had a huge impact on real estate as they established a high demand for previously rural land.  Along with subdivisions came the need for shopping and services, increasing the value of land in these outlying areas.  Interstate highways lead to the rise of travel services such as motels and fast-food restaurants, again impacting real estate values.  The locations of the roads often led to the boom or bust of small towns much in the same way that trains did in the 1800's. 

As gas prices continue to rise and traffic grows within urban areas, there is an emerging trend back to "city" living.  The central business districts, many of which were abandoned with the growth of the suburbs, are starting to see businesses return.  As a result, people are choosing to live in the city or the closer lying areas just outside of town.  The need for mass transit is growing as people are looking for ways to get too and from work in a simple and economical manner.   As people look for ways to commute between city centers, the need for fast and sustainable transportation increases.  The proposition of high speed train seems to be one solution.  While many parts of the world already have high speed trains in place, the US is still predominately in the planning process.  Proposals of these high speed train systems tout urban revitalization and sustainability as two of the major benefits.  The impact on land values both at stops and along the track is another consideration.  From California to Texas, both public and private partners are exploring the viability of this high speed travel. 

It is clear that transportation patterns have historically impacted the real estate market and present trends are no exception.  The question is to what extent.  Are we facing an exodus from the suburbs back to urban living?  Will we continue to look for ways to have our "country life" using the increase of technological connectivity to reduce our commute?  The one certainty is that change is inevitable and that these considerations will play a role in the future real estate market.